How to Find Deals on Trending Cards (That Aren't on eBay)
I rarely buy cards to flip on eBay. Why? It's too crowded. I like to look where other buyers aren't in hopes of finding undervalued cards that can be flipped in the short term. Here is how I do it...
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Acting on the Data
Whenever I pass along the posts or videos on trending hot cards, I’ll rarely go to eBay and buy at the price I’m reporting on.
Why?
Because the goal is to buy low and sell high, not the other way around.
So if a card is picking up in popularity and selling for more and more, that means that perhaps last week or even yesterday it was worth less. It also means that tomorrow it can return to that lower price just as easily.
Of course, the card can keep increasing in value, but for how long? And how do you know when the growth will come to a halt?
You don’t really.
Paul Skenes has been a rare exception this season where his cards just seem to be going up and up, but believe me when I say, it can’t go on like this forever. When the growth stops, hopefully the value just levels off, but it can also start heading back the other direction.
There are countless examples, but let’s just look at Corbin Carroll since it has been a massive swing in performance from last year to now:
The card it a low in September of 2022, only to skyrocket to $920 in June of 2023. But from there?
$799 in 7/2023
$660 in 8/2023
$566 in 9/2023
$519 in 11/2023
$433 in 4/2024
$425 in 5/2024
This all happened in less than a year, but sometimes it happens much faster.
Can the value jump again? Of course. Can it keep declining? Of course.
So, Now What?
Ok, I think I’ve made my point. I’m not one to go and buy a card when it is increasing in value at the value it has increased to (I’m also not one to spend hundreds on a single card of a current player because I don’t like much risk).
In this hypothetical situation, though, if in July of 2023, when that card was flirting with $800 I found the card for sale for $550, then I’d be a buyer. What’s the difference?
In one scenario you’re buying a card for $799 in hopes it increases beyond $799 so that you can sell it for a profit. In the other, you’re buying it for $550 with a very real possibility of selling it for $799 (or more) at that very instance. In the first scenario, you’re speculating that the card will increase in value, but in scenario two you’re just hoping you can sell it at the value it is currently at based on the last sale (and/or other cards like it that are currently for sale).
Of course, again, just an example, and it’s not like cards are just sitting around at $200 less than current market value. But, sometimes they are, and that’s why I’m writing this.
This is just my personal approach based on my risk aversion and personal strengths/skills. Others have been successful holding cards and waiting for the increase. I’m not that smart or risky. If I do it, it’s with lower-value prospects in bulk, for the most part.
So, how do I find deals?