PSA 10 or Bust? Comparing Graded Values vs. Raw (And Other Grading Thoughts)

Does it make sense to grade "this" card? How about "that" card? There is no blanket answer, but here is some data, observations, and personal experiences to think about.

Ballcard Genius

Aug 29, 2024

∙ Paid

Grading a card doesn’t automatically increase its value, especially if the grade comes back anything less than a 10.

This makes the grading decision a tough one, right?

And surprise, surprise - like all things cards these days - its a question of risk vs. reward.

Open a pack of cards, there is risk.
Buy a card to flip, there is risk.
Grade a card, there is risk.

And you’ll hear me say this all the time—there is no clear cut right answer. Sometimes opening a pack of cards produces a nice hit. Sometimes buying a card to flip works out perfectly. Sometimes grading a card increases its value by X%.

Sometimes, many times, the opposite happens. Probably my worst submission right here:

(I graded this “unseen” from COMC to PSA. Meaning, I never held the card. This was also before COMC’s pre-grade review, so I was flying blind. Also took a guess on Daniel Jones’ play last year. Just all-around bad.)

There is so much outside of your control that you just can’t “hit” every time.

So, per usual, these are just some observations, and not me saying to do this or that. The action instead is to look at the patterns and then hone in on the card you’re thinking about grading.

What does that card’s value look like raw? What if it grades a 10? What if it grades a 9? How does PSA 10 value compare to BGS 9.5 or SGC 10?

I talk about the Market Movers “Movements” report a lot, but they have a number of other valuable tools that I enjoy using as well.

One is the “Intelligence” tool, where you can easily compare:

Grades: What’s a PSA 10 vs. PSA 9? PSA 9 vs. SGC 9.5?
Variations: How does an X-Fractor compare to a Prism Refractor?
Players: How does Jackson Holliday’s cards compare to Elly De La Cruz?

Market Movers platform is not my platform, I’m simply a user and affiliate. If you want to do your own research, you can grab a free trial to Market Movers with code BALLCARDGENIUS. You’d also get 20% off of your membership forever if you wanted to continue once your trial has been completed.

Jump to Market Movers

Market Movers isn’t perfect; no tool is. I’ve seen instances where a graded card was being included in the raw numbers, which might cause a huge spike in value. So trust, but verify.

For this post, I’ll be dialing into PSA 10 vs. PSA 9 vs. raw values.

The goal? To show how the values work together and to get you thinking about which cards might make sense to grade.

DISCLAIMER: My math isn’t perfect, my logic isn’t flawless, others probably do grading better than me, and I might have used some ChatGPT AI help put this together. Meaning, do not take this data and directly act on it. Take the data and apply it to your own card targets, your own situation; run it through your own brain and analysis. I myself am still a “rookie” when it comes to grading cards, but I feel I’ve learned a lot.

Let’s First Make Some Assumptions

Let’s say grading a card typically costs around $25—fair? And the value of a graded card can vary significantly depending on whether it receives a PSA 9 or PSA 10 grade. While PSA 10 cards are almost always more valuable, not every card will achieve that top grade. This is why it's essential to assess the potential profit for both PSA 9 and PSA 10 grades before deciding to grade. Cool?

Assessing Raw Card Values vs. PSA 9 Values

I think one of the first steps in determining whether a card is worth grading is to compare its raw value to its PSA 9 value. Maybe it’s because I’m a pessimist and don’t like to assume a grade of 10.

So, the question here is, if I grade this card and it receives a 9, can it still be profitable? Will I break even? Will I lose money? How much money?

To calculate this, I can simply subtract the $25 grading cost from the PSA 9 value and compare it to the raw value of the card. The formula looks like this:

PSA 9 Profit = PSA 9 Value - (Raw Value + $25 Grading Cost)

If the result is positive, grading might be worth considering, even if the card doesn’t achieve a PSA 10 grade.

But again, assumptions.

This is assuming the price I paid for the card is the “raw value” as told by Market Movers. If I got a deal on the card, that opens things up a bit.

And, profit could mean $1 or $20. Is $1 worth your time?

How Enticing is a PSA 10 Value?

Of course, while focusing on PSA 9 profitability is a start, the potential for a card to receive a PSA 10 grade adds an extra incentive.

That’s why we are grading, right?

A PSA 10 grade typically increases the card's value significantly, often multiplying the profit potential. This “kicker” makes the decision to grade a card even more attractive when there’s a reasonable chance of achieving a PSA 10.

A Couple of Examples

I’ve only included a couple of examples here, but have a list of about 600 cards I analyzed with ChatGPT. I’ve provided a link to the list at the end of the post (paid subscribers only).

Let’s take a look at a few examples using Market Movers values. These are 30-day averages.

Aaron Judge 2013 Bowman Draft #BDPP19 Chrome Draft Picks & Prospects (1st)

Raw Value: $140.03
PSA 9 Value: $164.73
PSA 9 Profit: -$.30
PSA 10 Profit: $452.91

So, if I paid $140 for this card, got it graded for $25, and received a PSA 9 ($164.73 value) I might be able to break even, just about.

However, the significant profit potential from a PSA 10 ($452.91) makes it a strong candidate for grading, provided there’s confidence in its condition, right?

Now, what if it receives a PSA 8?

Eek.

Also, how long will it take to get the card back, and how much will the market change from now to then ($25 means 45 business days with PSA)?

See! It’s not always an easy question to answer. Not to mention you have to be willing to drop $140 on a raw card.

A cheaper example:

Aaron Judge 2015 Bowman Draft #150 Base

Raw Value: $6.80
PSA 9 Value: $26.94
PSA 9 Profit: -$4.86
PSA 10 Profit: $46.24

So, much less risk, a little more in the red with a PSA 9, but still some PSA 10 upside. Which is more appealing to you? There isn’t a right answer.

So…Just Gather the Data and Sort for Max PSA 9 Profit?

I mean, you could. It would look something like this from the hundreds of cards I pulled:

Paul Skenes 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome DP Auto Refractor /499 +$217.42
Tony Gwynn 1983 Topps #482 Base +$171.65
Aaron Judge 2017 Topps #287 Gold /2017 +$127.81
Ken Griffey Jr. 1987 Bellingham Mariners #3 Team Issue +$112.93
Shohei Ohtani 2013 Calbee #D-07 Exciting Rookie +$112.42
Ken Griffey Jr. 1989 Upper Deck #1 Base +$108.42

Again, I have the link to my spreadsheet with 600 cards at the end of the post (paid subscribers only)

So there we go—buy a good-looking Skenes 1st Bowman Auto Refractor /499 and get it graded, right?

Here are the details:

Paul Skenes 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome DP Auto Refractor /499

Raw Value: $788.98
PSA 9 Value: $1,031.40
PSA 9 Profit: $217.42
PSA 10 Profit: $1,198.52

Again, these are 30-day averages, which means a lot could have changed in the market over that time. For this one, though, the raw 30-day average is showing as $788.98, and the lowest BIN on eBay I see right now is $785 shipped, so pretty close.

But what about the condition?

From the listing description:

Has a back indent and a print line, wouldn’t expect a gem.

So yes, the card is available at the stated raw price, but the condition isn’t there.

The next lowest-priced option is $999 plus shipping, which takes you a lot closer to “break even” territory.

Meaning, it’s not like these cards are just waiting around on trees waiting to be plucked. From the above, if you can find this card for $788 or lower and it’s in great condition, then you might have something to think about.

The problem is finding the opportunity with this one.

So what about something with higher quantities and more opportunity, like a card from the junk wax era?

Ken Griffey Jr. 1989 Upper Deck #1 Base

Raw Value: $54.51
PSA 9 Value: $187.93
PSA 9 Profit: $108.42
PSA 10 Profit: $1,997.22

Again, these are averages, which means the raw value of a 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. will vary greatly.

Just eyeballing the eBay listings, I’m not sure I see a copy worthy of being graded a PSA 9 until about $70+.

Even so, if I was going to choose to buy raw cards and grade them, I’d be more inclined to stick with the Griffey vs. the Skenes or Judge because there is less upfront cost/risk, and there is a seemingly endless supply of opportunity to scale.

What’s the Takeaway?

I know my takeaway—what’s your personal takeaway?

My takeaway is that, generally, not every card is worthy of grading; not even close. Another takeaway is that grading that absolute biggest and best cards might not be the best profit play.

On a personal experience level, I’m awful at judging card condition on eBay and buying raw with the intention of grading. I think I’ve done it 7 times and I’ve ended up not submitting any of them.

I don’t go to card shows or see cards in person, nor do I open a ton of product, so I have to rely on online purchases if I do want to grade.

(My first ever grading submission was a Luis Robert 2020 Topps Chrome Pink Refractor. Pulled it myself, and it gemmed. Remember how hot that card was? I still have it, and it isn’t worth much.)

So, that leaves two options:

Social Media Buying vs. eBay

One, if I’m going to buy a card online to grade, social media might be the way to go. Whether it’s a FB group or on Twitter, etc., people just seem to be a lot more forthcoming with information and card blemishes when the spotlight is on them.

It might be that they want to remain in good standing within the trading group, or that they don’t want to be called out publicly. They might appreciate the card more and look for blemishes, rather than assuming it’s perfect. Could also be it’s a lot easier for someone to call out a card’s condition on social media, where on eBay, people might hide behind the buried description or condition selector.

Pre-Grade Review When You Can

For me, this is probably the direction I’ll be leaning toward more and more. Ever since COMC introduced their pre-grading service ($5 per card; year 2000 or newer), I’ve had really good success:

The only PSA 9 I received was this Oneil Cruz, and I knew it was only capable of a 9:

Yes, it costs more money, but I like to think about the money saved. Send it without review and risk less than a PSA 9, or pay $5 and have a very good chance of getting at least a 9 and perhaps the 10.

Anyway, I’m running out of steam. Was this helpful? Questions or comments?