These Cards Were Getting Gobbled Up—Here is Why (And What It Means)
While knowing which cards are increasing in value is one thing, seeing which cards are increasing in total number of sales is another.
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Trying something different today, and I’m excited about what it means for future content and trend-spotting.
While knowing which cards are increasing in value is one thing, seeing which cards are increasing in total number of sales is another.
On one hand, you could say spotting value trends requires you to look back at the data, while looking at volume trends is more about looking at the right now.
Neither is a great indicator of future worth, but it’s interesting to look at different sides of data.
One thing is more certain, though—while a card can have a one-off sale that is completely out of the ordinary and blows comps out of the water, it is less likely that a card is going to sell, say, 15 more copies than usual in a week without a good reason.
Now, could some super-collector be the one person responsible for the uptick in sales volume for no other reason than they wanted 15 copies of a card for their PC? Sure.
Again, nothing is really black or white in card sales. I’m just here trying to do my best to put the pieces together so I can pass along a picture of sorts.
Last piece before getting into some examples—I would also think that the two bits of info - sales value and sales volume - can work hand-in-hand as well.
For instance, if there are 15 copies of a card available at $5 each and they all get bought in a day, the next person who has that card for sale can see those comps and along with the fact that there aren’t any more cards like it available currently.
So, they go to price theirs, they probably are not going to do so at $5, but perhaps $10, $15, etc.
With ALL of that, here are a few cards that have increased in volume over the last 7 days and potential reasons why. (To make this even more useful in the future, I hope to try and spot the trends more close day they happen, but we will see!)
And again, I’m getting all of this data from the Market Movers platform. If you want to do your own research, you can grab a free trial to Market Movers with code BALLCARDGENIUS. You’d also get 20% off of your membership forever if you wanted to continue once your trial has been completed.
Market Movers isn’t perfect; no tool is. I’ve seen instances where a graded card was being included in the raw numbers, which might cause a huge spike in value. So trust, but verify.
1. Cristian Mena 2023 Bowman Chrome #CPA-CM Prospect Auto (1st) Raw
On 7/3, sales of this Cristian Mena 2023 Bowman Chrome auto blew up, tallying 10 on eBay when all was said and done. Over the last 7 days, there have been 19 sales in total.
Why? Mena was called up to make his MLB debut against the Dodgers last Wednesday. Unfortunately, he struggled, allowing four runs in three innings, and was optioned back Triple-A.
The card’s value during that time? It increased a few bucks, with a sale even coming as recent as yesterday:
I’ll get more into what this means (or could mean) at the end).
2. Brandon Valenzuela 2022 Bowman #CPA-BV Chrome Prospect Auto (1st)
Sometimes cards become popular because of off-field events - as was the case with Mena, who saw a bump simply due to promotion - while other cards might increase in volume as a result of on-field play.
Brandon Valenzuela was named Texas League player of the month for June a few days ago, and as a result, he had four sales on 7/2 and three on 7/3 (I’m seeing a multi-sale day for this card last happening about 90 days ago).
Cool.
3. Garrett Mitchell 2023 Topps Update Home Field Advantage SSP
So far we have seen a volume increase because a player was promoted, and then another because they were named player of the month.
But what happens when someone comes back from injury?
Garrett Mitchell has been out for months, and was recently activated from the injured list. So, I’m guessing that’s why this 2023 Topps Update Home Field Advantage card got a popularity bump.
(That said—why this card in particular? I’m not too sure, and need to dig into it a bit. You’d expect either the player’s 1st Bowman Chrome or Topps Chrome, right?)
So What’s This All Mean?
Well, not a whole lot with these three examples, but they could have meant more.
Mena didn’t do well and was sent back down. His card values did rise a little bit, but not really enough to take advantage of it from a profit perspective. Plus, we will see if that new value sticks with his demotion.
Valenzuela’s honors are great, but his card values are still fairly low, with the last sale yesterday at $4, and the lowest-available on eBay still at $5. If he continues to play well, could these jump? Sure. It’s something to watch for.
And with Mitchell, again, while the volume increased, the value didn’t. The 180-day average is just above $12 and the last one sold for $11.66 (the lowest on eBay is at $15).
How would I act on this data? Well, it goes to show that being in the know can help you get in on these trends in one form or another. If you had a Mena auto that has been collecting dust, it would have been a good time to move it for at least a few bucks.
On the other hand, if Mena dominated, his card prices might have taken a jump, which means you might be able to sell for even more in the future, or as a buyer, you could take a look around to see if there were any available at the “old” price and then turn around and hopefully sell for a profit.
How do you keep in the know? Some ideas:
Follow Twitter accounts that report on MLB and MiLB news and transactions
Set up Google Alerts for baseball-related news
Just do a Google search once a day
What could cause sales volume to jump?
Promotion from minors to majors
Awards and accolades
Return from injury
Multi-homer games
Complete-game shutouts
Big strikeout night
Record-breaking performance